Scottie Scheffler’s Open Chances: Did That Missed Cut Even Matter?

Alright, let’s cut to the chase. Scottie Scheffler, the guy who’s been drier than a desert golf course for making cuts, suddenly… doesn’t. A missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. Longest streak in the books? Gone. Poof. So, what does this mean heading into The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale? Are we suddenly writing him off? Or is this just a blip on the radar for a guy who’s been playing at an almost alien level?

The golf world, as usual, is buzzing. Some folks are hitting the panic button, others are just shrugging it off. Let’s dive into what the insiders are saying. Because honestly, when the best player in the world stumbles, even a little, everyone notices. And when it’s right before a major? Forget about it. The speculation machine goes into overdrive. Is it a sign of rust? A crack in the armor? Or just a really, really bad Tuesday?

The Scheffler Situation: Is Anyone Really Surprised?

Look, Scottie’s been on another planet for a while now. Consistently hitting it close, making putts when it counts, just pure dominance. But even gods have an off day, right? The feeling from some is that this missed cut is less about a fundamental flaw and more about a slight dip in his usually otherworldly iron play. He’s still the best, no doubt. But when you go from “hitting it like a robot” to “just really, really good,” a few other guys who are also really, really good can suddenly catch up. It happens.

The argument is, he didn’t play badly in Scotland. He just didn’t play Scheffler-level well. And that’s the key. Even a slightly off Scheffler is still good enough to contend. The missed cut? Some see it as a wake-up call. Like a boxer getting rocked and coming back stronger. A little extra motivation, a little extra fire. He’s had time to get to Birkdale early, to get a feel for the place. That’s a massive advantage.

Remember last year? Everyone was freaking out about his putting around this time. How did he respond? He went and won The Open at Portrush the very next week. So, maybe this is just the prelude to another masterful performance. Don’t bet against him just yet. He’s not a guy who plays two bad tournaments in a row and disappears. That’s just not his MO.

What’s the Real Storyline at Birkdale?

Beyond the Scheffler drama, what else is cooking for The Open? There are a few obvious ones, but let’s dig a bit deeper.

• Rory McIlroy: The Claret Jug Quest Continues . At 37, Rory’s playing less, picking his spots, and really zeroing in on majors. He’s only got one Claret Jug, which, let’s be honest, is a damn shame considering how good he’s been. He’s had a lighter schedule since his Masters win, and he says he feels fresh. He played well at the Scottish, outside of one shaky round. With Scottie “struggling,” this feels like a prime chance for Rory to snag another major. He doesn’t have an infinite number of these chances left. The clock is ticking, and he knows it.
• Scottie Scheffler: The Defending Champ’s Redemption Arc? Even with the missed cut, he’s still the guy everyone’s watching. Can he shake off whatever was off in Scotland and defend his title? He’s the defending champ, looking to prove that the Scottish Open was just a fluke. This is his chance to silence any doubters and prove he’s still the man to beat.
• Tommy Fleetwood: The Hometown Hero’s Big Chance . This is a juicy one. A kid from Southport playing The Open in Southport. It’s written in the stars, right? He’s in good form, he’s been looking forward to this for years. You listen to the people who know him, and the anticipation is palpable. He’s looking for his first major, and what better place than on his home turf? The pressure, though? That’s going to be immense.

Fleetwood’s Window: Is It Closing or Just Opening?

Speaking of Tommy Fleetwood, this brings up a big question: Is he still the best player without a major? He’s been playing great, even cracking the top 3 in the world rankings earlier this season. But his major top 10s haven’t materialized in the last couple of years. At 35, is his window for a major title starting to shut? Or is it just starting to open wider?

Some argue his window is wide open. He’s a world-class ball-striker, and you expect him to win one, maybe two of these. But then you look at guys like Rickie Fowler, who had so many near misses that they never quite happened. Sometimes, the opportunities slip away, and that window slams shut. You need to see some serious game at Birkdale from Tommy to convince people that the door is still wide open.

Others point out that with every major that passes without a win, that opening gets a little tighter. The hometown pressure? That can be a killer. Fleetwood’s game seems to thrive in team events, where he’s not the sole focus. Being the lone guy under the spotlight, trying to win a stroke-play major, is a different beast entirely. It’s a mental battle as much as a physical one.

There’s also the age factor. Some believe the real prime major window for guys starts to close around 37 or 38. Fleetwood’s got a couple more years of prime golf ahead, no doubt. He’s been performing at a top-8 level for three years straight. So, the signs of the door closing aren’t exactly screaming at us yet. It’s a fine line, though. One missed opportunity can feel like the beginning of the end for some.

The Best Without a Major: Who Holds the Crown?

If it’s not Fleetwood, who is it? This is where opinions get spicy.

• Cameron Young: The Clear Favorite? Many are pointing to Cameron Young. He won The Players, he was leading The Masters on Sunday. He’s No. 3 in the world, and he’s clearly elevated his game this year. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him walk away from Birkdale with the Claret Jug and take his name off this list entirely. He’s got the game, he’s got the nerve. He’s a serious contender.
• Viktor Hovland: A Strong Contender . Hovland is another name that pops up. He’s got the talent, he’s got the pedigree. He’s been knocking on the door in majors. He’s the kind of player who could absolutely break through.
• Ludvig Aberg: The Rising Star . For pure talent in the “non-major winner” category, Ludvig Aberg is a name thrown around. He’s young, he’s fearless, and he’s already showing he belongs at the highest level. He’s one to watch, for sure.

The debate often comes down to who has been at this level longer. Young has been a consistent threat for a while now, while Aberg is the newer force. But when you talk about raw talent and potential, Aberg is right there at the top.

Pressure Cooker: Who Feels It the Most?

It’s the last men’s major of the year. Everyone’s feeling some pressure, but who’s feeling it the most? Who’s got the most on the line?

• Jon Rahm: The LIV Uncertainty . For Rahm, it’s always about the majors. Ever since he made the move to LIV, his chances to go head-to-head with the PGA Tour’s best have been limited. He’s contended in a couple of PGAs since the move, but it’s not the same. With LIV’s future looking shaky, Rahm’s own future is a bit murky. He needs to bring his A-game to Birkdale and grab another major. It’s crucial for his legacy and his career right now.
• Scottie Scheffler: The Rare Off-Week Pressure . As mentioned, Scheffler’s coming off a missed cut. He’s the defending champ. This season, by his ridiculously high standards, has been a little disappointing. This major feels just a bit bigger than usual for him. He’s too grounded to show it, but you know he’s feeling it. He needs to prove that the Scottish Open was a fluke and that he’s still the dominant force.
• Tommy Fleetwood: The Hometown Burden . And then there’s Fleetwood. Imagine standing on that first tee at Birkdale. The roar of the crowd, the weight of expectation. It’s something no one else will experience this week. It’s a story that builds and builds. That’s incredible pressure. Can he handle it? Or will it be too much?

Most Surprising Missed Cut: Scheffler or Korda?

This is a tough one. Both Scottie Scheffler and Nelly Korda are absolute titans of the game. Korda, in particular, has been on an absolute tear. Before her missed cut at the Evian Championship, she hadn’t finished worse than T8 in nine stroke-play events, with four wins and three runner-ups. That’s insane consistency.

But Scheffler’s streak was also mind-boggling. Nearly four years without missing a weekend. Thirty-seven straight top-25 finishes. That’s a level of consistency that’s almost unheard of. When you see that look of confusion on his face after a Friday round, you know something unusual happened.

For some, Nelly’s was more surprising because of her sheer dominance this season. She’s been on another level. For others, it’s Scheffler because his made-cut streak was just so astronomically long and he’s been so consistently in contention to win every single event, not just make the cut. Jon Rahm himself said it’s not the cuts made that are astonishing, it’s that every time Scheffler played, he seemed to have a chance to win. That’s the real shocker.

Ultimately, whether Scheffler’s missed cut means anything for The Open remains to be seen. But it’s certainly added an extra layer of intrigue to an already stacked major championship. You can bet he’ll be looking to prove a point. And that, my friends, is what makes golf so damn interesting. You can find more about major championship history and upcoming events at The Open Championship website .