The Open Championship 2026: Who’s Lifting the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale?

Alright, let’s cut the crap. The Open Championship. Royal Birkdale. Sunday. Who the hell is walking away with the Claret Jug? We’ve seen some serious drama already. Sam Burns is sitting pretty with a two-shot lead after a blistering Saturday. Ryan Fox is right there, Si Woo Kim too. Bryson DeChambeau, after that penalty kerfuffle on Friday, clawed his way back. Ludvig Aberg is lurking. And then there’s Tommy Fleetwood, the hometown hero, with the crowd surely willing him on. So, who’s got the stones to do it? Let’s get into it.

The Leader: Sam Burns and the Pressure Cooker

Sam Burns. He’s at the top. Two shots clear. Sounds like a done deal, right? Wrong. This is The Open. This is Birkdale. The winds can whip up like a banshee. The greens are notoriously tricky. Burns has been knocking on the door in majors, yeah. He’s a deadly putter, no doubt. He’s in form. But leading going into Sunday at a major? That’s a whole different beast. It’s a lead you either defend like a lion or crumble under. He’s got the strokes, but does he have the mental fortitude when everyone’s breathing down his neck? We’ve seen plenty of guys seize up in this exact spot. It’s his time, they say. Maybe. Or maybe he’s just the next guy to feel the weight of expectation crush him.

Here’s the deal with Burns. He’s been close. Too close, maybe. You start wondering if it’s ever going to happen for him. He’s got that pure ball-striking. He’s got the putting stroke. He was supposed to be the next big thing, and while he’s won plenty, the majors have been the missing piece. This is his shot. A massive shot. He wasn’t even supposed to be here, some say. His daughter arrived early, and he got the nod to play. That’s a hell of a story. But stories don’t win majors. Clutch putts and solid pars do. He’s got the lead. That’s the best position to be in, but it also means everyone else is gunning for you. No easy birdies out there. Just pure grit.

Bryson DeChambeau: The Maverick’s Comeback

Then you’ve got Bryson. What a rollercoaster. Friday was a mess. A two-shot penalty? Seriously? How does that even happen? But he fought back. A one-under 69. That’s not just good; that’s Bryson being Bryson. He’s four shots back. That’s a chasm, but not an insurmountable one, especially at an Open. This guy plays with a chip on his shoulder the size of a small car. He thrives on chaos. He thrives on proving people wrong. Remember what he did at Winged Foot? He can go low. He can absolutely dominate a golf course when he gets it going. And Birkdale, with its demands on power and precision, could be right up his alley.

Don’t underestimate the psychological impact of his Friday. He could have mailed it in. Instead, he showed some serious fight. That kind of resilience can carry you through. He knows how to win majors. He knows how to handle pressure. He’s got the distance. He’s got the short game. If he gets hot with the putter, watch out. The conditions are supposed to be a bit easier in the mornings. That could be his window. He’s a wildcard. A dangerous one. He’s not afraid to take risks, and sometimes, that’s exactly what you need to chase down a leader. He’s got the swagger. He’s got the game. He’s a definite threat, no question about it.

Tommy Fleetwood: The Hometown Hope

And then there’s Tommy Fleetwood. The local lad. Playing in an Open at Birkdale. If that’s not a movie script, I don’t know what is. He’s five shots back. Not ideal, but he’s close enough to smell it. The crowd will be absolutely electric for him. That kind of energy can lift you, propel you. He’s in a sweet spot, they say. Not leading, so the pressure’s a little less intense, but close enough to make a serious run. He has to be aggressive. He has to make birdies. He’s got nothing to lose now, really. The pressure is on Burns and the others ahead.

Fleetwood himself said he feels no pressure. That’s the ultimate calm before the storm. If he truly feels that, he’s dangerous. He’s got the game. He’s got the touch. He can hit those soaring draws that just disappear into the wind. And the roar of the home crowd? That’s a powerful, powerful thing. It can give you that extra yard, that extra ounce of focus. He’s got the chance to be a hero. To bring the Claret Jug home to the Northwest of England. It’s a narrative that’s almost too good to be true. But sometimes, golf writes those stories. He’s got to go out there and earn it, but the stars might just be aligning for him. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.

Ludvig Aberg: The Quiet Contender

Don’t forget about Ludvig Aberg. This kid is something else. He’s four shots back, same as Bryson. But he’s doing it quietly. No fanfare. Just pure, solid golf. Birdied 11 of his last 35 holes. That’s not just good; that’s elite. He’s been on fire. He’s got that calm demeanor. He’s got the power. He’s got the precision. He’s not fazed by the big stage. He’s already proven that. He’s the dark horse. The guy nobody’s talking about as much, but who has the game to win. He’s got nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Aberg is the kind of player who can just sneak up on you. He’s got that unflappable quality. He’s not going to get caught up in the drama or the noise. He’s just going to play his game. And his game has been exceptional. He’s got the full package. Distance, accuracy, putting. He’s got the pedigree from his college days. He’s shown he can compete with the best. If he gets off to a hot start on Sunday, he could put serious pressure on Burns. He’s the guy who could spoil everyone’s party. You ignore him at your peril. He’s got the game, and he’s got the nerve.

The Unproven on Major Sundays

Then you’ve got the guys who are right there, but maybe haven’t got that major-winning pedigree yet. Ryan Fox, Si Woo Kim. They’re tied for second. They’ve shot incredible rounds. They’re in the mix. But can they close it out on Sunday at The Open? That’s the question. Experience matters in these situations. The guys who have been there, done that, and come out the other side. These guys are hungry. They’ve got nothing to lose. But the pressure of being in contention on the final day of a major is immense. It’s a different kind of pressure than just shooting a low round on Saturday. They’ve got to prove they can handle it when it truly counts.

These players are the wild cards. They could go out and shoot the round of their lives. Or they could get a bit tight and fade away. It’s hard to say. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance. Fox, especially, with that 62. That’s phenomenal. Kim has won majors before, so he’s got that experience. But being tied for second is different to being in the final group. They’ll be looking at the leaderboard, seeing what the leaders are doing. They’ll have to play their own game, but it’s impossible to ignore what’s happening around you. They could be the guys who benefit from the leaders faltering, or they could be the ones to put the pressure on. It’s all on the table for them.

What About the Conditions?

You can’t talk about The Open without talking about the weather. Birkdale is a beast when the wind gets up. It’s a links course. It’s exposed. You can have calm mornings and howling gales in the afternoon. That’s the beauty and the brutality of it. The conditions can change everything. A player who starts well could get caught by a late storm. A player who starts slow could get a favorable draw. It’s a lottery, to an extent. But the guys who can adapt, the guys who can grind it out, they’re the ones who usually come out on top.

The morning starters often have an advantage when the wind picks up later in the day. That’s what some are saying about Birkdale this week. So, if you’re playing in the afternoon, you’re already at a disadvantage if the wind is up. That’s something to consider when looking at the leaderboard. Who’s playing when? Who’s got the better draw? It’s not just about the golf swing; it’s about luck of the draw too. The players who can manage their game in tough conditions, who can stay patient and accept the bad breaks, they’re the ones who will be in contention. It’s a mental game as much as a physical one.

My Pick? It’s a Gut Feeling.

Look, picking a winner at The Open is always a gamble. There are too many variables. But if I have to put my neck on the line… it’s tough. Burns has the lead, and that’s hard to ignore. He’s been knocking on the door. He’s got the putter. But there’s something about Bryson. That fire in his belly. That ability to just go nuclear. He’s been through the wringer and he’s still standing. He’s got that ‘us against the world’ mentality. He loves proving people wrong. And this course, with its challenges, suits his aggressive style when he’s dialed in. He’s got the power to dominate, and he’s got the short game to back it up.

So, yeah. I’m going with Bryson DeChambeau. He’s got the grit. He’s got the game. He’s got the narrative. After that Friday, he’s got something to prove. He’s going to come out swinging. He’s not afraid to take risks, and at The Open, sometimes you need to be bold. He’s four shots back, but that’s a reachable number. He’s got the mental toughness. He’s the guy who thrives on this kind of pressure. He’s the guy who can put together a string of birdies and turn this thing on its head. It’s going to be a hell of a Sunday, but I reckon Bryson’s got the X-factor to get it done. You can find more about the history of this iconic tournament on the official Open Championship website .